Jamerson Viegas
Queiroz
Universidade
Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil
E-mail: viegasqueiroz@gmail.com
Kilvia Kalidja Borges
Universidade
Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil
E-mail: kilviakalidja@hotmail.com
Fernanda
Cristina Barbosa Pereira Queiroz
Universidade
Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil
E-mail: fernandacbpereira@gmail.com
Nilton Cesar
Lima
Universidade Federal
de Uberlândia, Brazil
E-mail: cesarlim@yahoo.com
Christian Luiz da Silva
Universidade Tecnológica Federal
do Paraná
E-mail:
christianlsilva76@gmail.com
Liziane de
Souza Morais
Universidade Federal do Rio
Grande do Norte
E-mail: lizianemorais@hotmail.com.br
Submission: 7/13/2019
Revision: 9/18/2019
Accept: 2/4/2020
ABSTRACT
Renewable energy has promoted increasingly diffused
propulsions in political, social and organizational environments because of
their relevance to future climatic conditions and restrictions on natural
resources that threaten environmental impacts. Brazil has enormous potential to
exploit renewable energy, especially photovoltaic solar energy, since it has a
daily solar incidence of between 4,500 Wh/m2 and 6,300
Wh/m2. However, the development of this energy in
Brazil faces barriers that end up hindering its implementation and expansion.
The objective of the research is to identify and measure the impact of these
barriers to the expansion of photovoltaic solar energy in Brazil, through the
modeling of structural equations. For the development of the article,
interviews with managers of the solar energy sector were carried out all over
the country. As for the methodology, it’s an exploratory research,
cross-sectional and with a qualitative-quantitative approach. Moreover,
concluded that: political and knowledge barriers negatively influence the
implementation and expansion of photovoltaic solar energy in Brazil.
Keywords: Renewable Energy; Photovoltaics; Energy Barriers; Solar Energy
1.
INTRODUCTION
Currently there are
several types of primary energy source, and fossil fuel is still the most
widely used resource, according to the International Energy Agency. However,
the use of fossil fuels causes many environmental impacts, contributing to
global warming, acid rain formation, air pollution, and other environmental
pollution (ZHANG et al., 2012).
The worldwide expansion
of photovoltaic solar energy in 2016 represented 165 GW. The evolutionary history
is significant, in 08 years (from 1999 to 2007) it grew 10 times, went from 1
GW to 10 GW. Growth was better still in the following years, growing 10 times
in just 05 years (from 2008 to 2012), from 10 GW to 100 GW (ABSOLAR, 2018).
This accelerated growth
occurred mainly in China, the USA, Africa, Latin America, the Middle East and
India. Highlighting the US growth that seeks to replace Japan as the third
largest producer. Overall corporate finance reached a mark of $ 23.5 billion in
2015 (KABIR et al., 2018).
In Brazil, although
there are already advances in renewable energy with several wind farms and
micro generation of solar energy, the country still presents great obstacles in
the development of new sources of renewable energy, and this means that its energy
matrix is still dependent on hydroelectric sources, which although renewable,
suffers from the scarcity of rainfall and thermoelectric plants that complement
the energy supply (MENDES et al., 2016).
Several factors in
Brazil have been revealing the understanding that the demand for electricity in
the country will increase significantly. Justifications are based on the
demographic, sectorial and macroeconomic assumptions, together with
self-production and energy efficiency, which are of great importance in
determining the dynamics of electric energy consumption, with direct
implication in the behavior of several market indicators (EPE, 2017).
Given the context
presented, solar energy has been one of the alternatives for expanding
renewable energies in Brazil, diversifying the country's energy production and
avoiding this extreme dependence on hydroelectric and thermoelectric energies.
Brazil is abundant in solar rays and its use generates many benefits, since the
solar energy can be transformed for several purposes like system of electric
power generation, heating and cooling, among others.
In this sense, it’s
necessary to understand the incentive mechanisms for the development and
expansion of solar energy in Brazil. For this to occur, it’s important to
preliminarily assess the barriers that prevent the expansion of photovoltaic
solar energy. In this way, this article aims to identify and measure the impact
of the barriers (Techniques, Policies, Financial, Environmental, Social,
Cultural and Behavioral, Knowledge) in the expansion of photovoltaic solar
energy in Brazil.
This research is
justified because it allows to understand the influence of the barriers that
prevent the implantation and expansion of solar energy in Brazil, blocking the
growth of this renewable energy so important for the environment and
sustainably supplying an uninterrupted projection in the country. This work is
structured in three large sections: firstly, it presents the literature with
the main highlights on photovoltaic solar energy and barriers.
Second, the research
hypotheses and the respective conceptual model are presented, where the
methodological outline adopted to reach the objective previously exposed is
presented. Finally, the results and conclusions obtained through the modeling
of structural equations are shown, where it’s possible to quantify the barriers
that impede the implementation and expansion of solar energy in Brazil.
2.
RENEWABLE ENERGY
Energy is one of the
primordial elements to sustain human life, its activities and necessities, such
as transportation, civil and operational constructions, domestic activities,
leisure, manufacturing and production among many other purposes and importance.
There are several types of primary energy sources, however fossil fuels are
still the most important and currently used (ZHANG et al., 2012). Approximately
80% of the primary energy supply comes from fossil fuels (JOHANSSON;
THOLLANDER, 2018).
Although countries
around the world are dependent on non-renewable energy, it’s noted that
renewable energy has gradually gained space and importance not only in the
micro vision, but also in the global vision, since it’s a clean and sustainable
energy. Graph 1 shows this reality.
Graph 1:
Global electricity production
Source: Kannan and Vakeesan (2016)
There are many
countries that encourage and invest in the growth of this energy sector. For
example, some countries such as Germany, Japan and the United States, despite
not having the best sunrays and best winds, invest and create opportunities for
further development of this segment (STRUPEIT; PALM, 2016).
Global investments in
renewable energy technology have been surpassing each year; Graph 2 shows this
growth and the comparison between developed and developing countries.
Graph 2: New
global investments in renewable energy by technology
Source: Energias Renováveis
(2016)
It can be noticed that
solar and wind energy presents a great differential of growth in relation to
the others. Showing a percentage growth of 12% and 4%, respectively, in
relation to the previous year. Faced with this global trend, the country
that doesn’t follow can be left with its development, especially in developing
countries such as Brazil. Brazil is a privileged country in renewable
energy sources, such as solar, wind, geothermal and the already used
hydroelectric. Graph 3 shows the distribution of the country's energy
potential.
Graph 3:
Installed potential (KWh) of the Brazilian energy matrix
Source: Aneel (2017) and Energias
Renováveis (2016).
Brazil has a total
installed capacity of 154,134,091 Kwh, of which approximately 100 thousand Kwh
comes from hydroelectric power plants (HPP), hydroelectric plant (PCH) and
hydroelectric generating plant (CGH), leveraging a total of 64% of all of the
country's energy generation, followed by thermoelectric power plants, which are
the second most used form of energy in the country with almost 27% of installed
potential, while wind and solar (EOL and UFV) have only 7.4% and 0 , 4%,
respectively (ANEEL, 2017).
Brazil is the second
country in the ranking with respect to the world's hydroelectric power capacity
(8.6%), losing only to China with its 27.9%, that is, it’s still a country
totally dependent on this source and subject to seasonality of rainfall, when unaffected
by their lack (RENEWABLE ENERGIES, 2016).
On the other hand, the
country faces the greatest structural challenge in its energy matrix, when it
combines the sustainability and projection aspects of electricity. There
are studies of energy demand in Brazil revealing a projection of consumption of
more than 1,605 terawatt-hours (TWh) for the year
2050, that is, demand will triple in comparison to demand for 2013, which was
463.7 TWh.
Revealing that there’s
a horizon of challenges in innovations ahead, either in the energy matrix,
production, socioeconomic habits, or even in new energy resources that could be
available in this horizon (EPE, 2016). In this way, the country needs to invest
in an abundant energy source that doesn’t suffer from its scarcity. Photovoltaic
solar energy presents itself as an excellent source of energy for Brazil, given
its abundance all year round and in all regions of the country.
2.1.
Photovoltaic
Solar Energy
Solar energy is a
constant source and can be generated individually, independently and safely for
all. It’s a very important energy for individuals, as well as
socioeconomic sectors, such as companies, societies, states and nations (Kabir et al., 2018). Photovoltaic solar energy boils
down to the conversion of radiation or sunlight into electricity. The
principle of the system is to activate the electrons, offering extra energy
(Kannan, Vakeesan, 2016). Table 1 shows an
overview of the benefits and limitations of solar energy.
Table 1:
Benefits and Limitations of Solar Energy
Solar
Energy |
|
Benefits |
Limitations |
It’s
extremely abundant |
High initial installation cost |
Has
the ability to meet demands around the world |
Performance
limitations of some components such as batteries and inverters |
It’s
sustainable (clean) |
Limited
battery life |
It’s
renewable |
How
to dispose of the battery safely |
It’s
appropriate to achieve sustainable development |
Solar
panels are produced from rare or precious metals |
Doesn’t
release harmful gases |
Lack
of basic user knowledge, especially in rural developing areas |
Doesn’t
contribute to the greenhouse effect |
|
Doesn’t
depend on water use to operate (free of water shortage) |
Lack
of specialists for maintenance, inspection, repair and evaluation |
Requires
more labor, with more job generated |
There’s
dependence on many lands for large-scale solar generation |
Stable
financial demand for long periods |
Solar
energy can only be produced during the day and its efficiency depends on the
climate |
Source: Adapted Kabir et al. (2018) and Sampaio and Gonzales (2017).
Solar
energy is the one that most uses among renewable technologies. It’s
necessary to generate 25 to 30 direct jobs for each installed MW (ABSOLAR,
2018). In 2016, this employment rate increased by 12% to 3.1 million jobs
and China accounts for more than half of these jobs and is still the country
that most installs and manufactures solar panels (FERROUKHI et al., 2017).
From an installed
capacity perspective, China leads 34.5 GW of photovoltaic energy, followed by
the United States (14.7 GW), Japan (8.6 GW), India (4 GW), UK (2 GW), Germany
(1.5 GW), Korea (0.9 GW), Australia (0.8 GW), Philippines (0.8 GW), Chile (0.7
GW), (Absolar, 2018).
In Brazil, it’s
notorious to highlight its potential attribute of solar energy generation, especially
in regions of the northeastern semi-arid region, with direct irradiations above
2000kWh / m² and low cloudiness (PEREIRA et al., 2017). Brazil started the
auctions of renewable energy in 2013, at the time photovoltaic solar energy
obtained 31 competing plants that in total added a capacity of 813MW (BRAZIL,
2013). In 2014 a specific auction for solar energy was carried out where a
total installed capacity of 1048 MW was contracted at an average price of R $
215.00 per MWh (equivalent to US $ 87 / MWh), corresponding to very competitive
values when compared to the cost of electricity in Brazil (AMBIENTE ENERGIA,
2014).
These data recorded in
Brazil reveal that the country is 15 years out of date compared to the main
markets This fact is associated with other studies (FARIA JR. et al., 2017),
where they point out that solar energy in Brazil is unexplored and
underutilized, and for alternative renewable energy sources to outperform
nonrenewable ones, it’s necessary to overcome some barriers such as: fiscal
incentives and tax credits; development and domination of the technologies
involved; favorable natural conditions; favorable socio-environmental
characteristics; decentralization in the generation of electricity; and shorter
implementation times.
Throughout this
section, Brazil was presented as one of the countries with the highest solar
incidence, with a strong potential to be still projected in its energy
matrix. Given this context, it becomes feasible to study the barriers that
interfere in the implementation and expansion of photovoltaic solar energy,
subject presented in the next section.
2.2.
Energy barriers
The contribution of
solar energy to the Brazilian energy matrix isn’t considerable, representing
only 0.02% of the country's consuming units (ABSOLAR, 2018). This is due
to numerous barriers that hinder this contribution. Therefore, it’s
imperative to identify the main barriers in the energy configuration of
photovoltaic solar energy, which prevent large-scale implementation and
expansion in Brazil, since the country has an abundance of resources to be
explored. In the studied literature it was possible to identify several
barriers that impede the implementation and / or expansion of photovoltaic
solar energy, in this way it was possible to categorize the barriers in:
Investment barriers; Institutional; Politics; Regulatory; Techniques;
Financial; Market; Social; Cultural, Environmental (PUNIA et al., 2017, TIMILSINA
et al., 2012). In the sequence we will highlight the barriers categorized in
this study:
2.2.1. Technical Barriers (BT)
Among the energy
barriers related to solar energy sources, and specifically those that cooperate
under technical characteristics, have revealed that these have been concerns in
making solar energy more competitive and effective compared to other sources
power (KAPOOR et al., 2014). Although solar technology has leapfrogged over the
years, it has been found that suppliers need to adjust to customer needs in
order to satisfy them and at the same time survive in the marketplace (KIM et
al., 2014). Examples of technological problems are source intermittence,
storage problem, low technological maturity (KAPOOR et al., 2014).
Such problems were
specified from the understanding of structural confrontations as technical
barriers (ZHANG et al., 2012). Other technical aspects of energy barriers are
associated with procedures, standards, follow-up and technical descriptions of
equipment, especially on occasions configured by the production chain (MATHIOULAKIS
et al., 2017). It’s understood that the technical capacity and even the
infrastructure capacity can affect the diffusion of solar systems in a country
(KARAKAYA; SRIWANNAWIT, 2015).
In this sense, it’s
clear that technical barriers encompass various questions and technological uncertainties
of photovoltaic solar energy such as: standardization, reduction of equipment
costs, storage, structure, procedures and knowledge. But to what extent do
these barriers still interfere with this expansion of solar energy in Brazil?
2.2.2. Political Barriers (BP)
Among the main
characteristics of these barriers, which measure political barriers to
photovoltaic solar energy, the following stand out: lack of political will,
responsibilities, political incentives, instability, lack of specialists in
political decisions, etc. (PUNIA et al., 2017). The difference between the cost
of solar technology and other technologies requires political support, this
support has been more important in the past, as observed in European countries
(Table 1), and many of these supports will remain active for the next few
decades. These supports may be for adopting access and adoption procedures, the
existence of long-term goals and investment security (DEL RÍO et al., 2018).
Describe several
examples of political barriers to photovoltaic solar energy: the lack of
government policy and its respective support to the sector; the lack of
strategic support for the promotion of technologies; normative issues of land
allocation, among others (ZHANG et al., 2012; KAPOOR et al., 2014). In addition
to the organizational aspects of government, financial and financial support
from the government as an incentive mechanism (LAN; YU, 2009), Li et al.,
2014). In this sense, the political barrier has a strong influence on other
barriers, which may or may not be determinant for the development of this
technology in a given country, as can be seen in Table 2.
Table 2: Examples of political incentives
adopted in European countries
Parents |
Type of Incentive |
Brief description |
Spain |
Feed-in Tariffs (FIT) |
Approved a clean energy law in 2013 (Royal Decree 413/2014)
introducing a totally new subsidy system with gains from all existing
renewable energy plants. According to the decree, generators will earn a rate
of return of about 7.5% over their lifetime. This rate, which can be reviewed
every three years, is based on the average interest of a sovereign bond of 10
years plus 3%, to be applied from July 2013. |
France |
FIT-Auctions |
Contract
of offer defined in a solar auction. |
Italy |
FIT |
Italy applies a graded FIT for CSP, with bands according to size
(total receiver surface) and solar fraction. FIT for large plants (> 2500
m2) is € 0.32 / kWh, where the solar fraction is above 85%, € 0.30 / kWh from
50% to 85% and € 0,27 / kWh where is less than 50%. The FIT will be paid from
25 years and will fall 5% from 2015 and 5% from 2016. FITs for small plants
(<2500 m2) have the same solar fraction rules and are 0.36 € / kWh, € 0.32
/ kWh and € 0.30 / kWh, respectively. |
Germany |
FIP/FIT |
Sliding
premium for> 100 kW and FIT for <100 kW. |
Greece |
FIT/ Grant for
funding |
FIT (with capacity limits e) and capital exchanges. Since April 2014,
Greece has introduced FIT reductions for new operating projects (~ 25%),
applied a producer remuneration discount (10 - 37.5%), defined capacity
limits for adjustments and removing the annual inflation adjustment of FIT's.
Greece provides a FIT of 26.5 c € / kWh for CSP, which rises to 28.5 c € /
kWh if at least 2 hours of storage is incorporated. |
Source: Adapted Del Río et al. (2018).
It can be seen that the
national policy models for the implementation and expansion of photovoltaic
solar energy in Europe must be relevant for countries that are under
construction or want to build solar power plants. Without political support
it’s difficult to implement renewable energies and trigger further incentives
for the sector (JESLIN; CHARLES, 2017).
It isn’t only
government interest and national policies that will leverage the expansion of
solar photovoltaics, regional or state governments have great importance for
the development of sustainable regional policies, creating opportunities and
development of the economy, attracting entrepreneurs, improving infrastructure
or removing bureaucracies and restrictions that hinder the implementation of
solar energy (JOLLY, 2017).
Political barriers make
it possible to measure measurable conditions associated with political
obstacles to assess possibilities for expansion and development of photovoltaic
solar energy, responsibilities, political incentives, instability, lack of
policy decision-makers and so on (PUNIA et al., 2017). However, Sen
and Ganguly (2017) have revealed that the energy
industry in many countries is centralized and, because of this monopoly, the
road to renewable energies is often difficult to consolidate, especially when
it’s in line with the political conditions that stimulate the sector.
2.2.3. Financial Barriers (BF)
The costs of an
innovation tend to decrease over time and vary with location (KARAKAYA; SRIWANNAWIT,
2015), i.e. the same technology in solar energy may present financial
variations for its adoption depending on the country. Financial barriers
to photovoltaic solar energy are numerous, such as lack of access to capital,
lack of loans, financial education, lack of financial incentive institutions,
etc. (PUNIA et al., 2017).
The costs of
photovoltaic circuits depend on the size of their matrix and involve direct
equipment costs such as inverters, cables, safety devices, as well as costs of
direct, indirect, overhead and maintenance labor (ZHANG et al., 2012). The
initial capital cost is therefore high, and access is limited to lines of
credit, high interest rates, etc. (KAPOOR et al., 2014).
In Brazil it still does
not use solar energy as its main energy source in its matrix, due to its high
common cost. (FERREIRA et al., 2018). It also cites the comparison between
costs in Germany and Brazil, where in 2013 the cost of installing the
photovoltaic system in Germany reached about 1684.0 Euros per kilowatt of
installed capacity (Kwp) and in the same period in
Brazil it cost ranged from 7,000.00 to 10,000.00 Reais
per Kwp, equivalent to 2000.00 - 3000.00
Euros. The cost of installation in Brazil is almost double the cost in
Germany. For a consistent growth, strong and attractive policies for the
market are indispensable, so that the investor sees low risk in the sector and
isn’t full of uncertainties.
2.2.4. Environmental Barriers (BA)
Solar energy becomes
supreme in relation to other energies since it’s abundant throughout the world
and the environmental impact is almost nil (OZOEGWU et al., 2017). On the
other hand, pipelines and oil pipelines, as well as vehicular transport, are
vulnerable to adverse climatic conditions, natural disasters and human
vandalism.
Although considered a
clean energy, the extraction of raw material is the reason for warning, as an
example the Chinese case, whose government has launched concerns with the
photovoltaic componentes (RABE et al.,
2017). For these have been related to serious environmental and health
risks during their extraction and processing of rare elements, which pollute
the environment with radioactivity and chemical contamination of water and
soil.
Another concern of
photovoltaic solar energy, despite being considered a clean and sustainable
energy, it also causes environmental impacts, when installing large-scale solar
panels that requires large extension of land and homeless innumerable animals
of their natural habitat. In addition, it has been that solar cells are
based on silicon and its manufacturing process uses chemicals as well as
chemicals used in batteries. These are some of the impacts that
photovoltaic solar energy has on the environment (KAYGUSUZ, 2009).
Also pointed out that
in addition to the problems with storage devices another obstacle is that many
manufacturers use lead-based solders and other metals to join solar cells and can
cause damage to the environment (KAYGUSUZ, 2009). Another highlight is that
land can be a restrictive factor in the adoption of renewable energies,
especially in rural areas where subsistence agriculture is practiced (HANGER et
al., 2016).
Although it’s reported,
by few authors during their studies about the impacts to the environment caused
by solar energy, what is evident to emphasize that when compared with other
sources of energy, this impact becomes practically null and therefore the sola energy is a partner of the sustainability.
2.2.5. Social, Cultural and Behavioral
Barriers (BS)
Such barriers have more
subjective characteristics. Factors such as lack of technological
awareness, lack of attention in policy decisions, resistance to new technology
are associated with social, cultural and behavioral barriers (KAPOOR et al.,
2014). By social conditions, people will realize that solar energy can
only be harnessed during the day, and will be dependent on the weather
conditions. In this sense, it can reduce their level of comfort or demand
changes in habits, and should promote social acceptance, even if they play a
crucial role in the implantation and expansion in favor of sustainable
development together with other renewable energy projects (SINDHU et al., 2016).
In developed countries
where there is strong political support for renewable energies, there is a high
acceptance of society driven by the desire to have a sustainable energy system
(ENGELKEN et al., 2016). However, social factors such as lack of awareness
among users and stakeholders in Tanzania are a strong barrier to the adoption
of photovoltaic solar energy (KARAKAYA; SRIWANNAWIT, 2015).
Another example, cited
by the authors as alternative comparability, is that the Chinese are more aware
of solar water heater technology than of solar photovoltaic
technology. The Barrier of social acceptance is well researched in
developed countries, but still little studied in developing countries.
In European countries,
for example, this concern is so important because it has been one of the
aspects to avoid delays or failures in innovative projects, since it can put at
risk an entire project that is associated with a certain innovation that isn’t
adept to society (HANGER et al., 2016). Social acceptance plays an
important role, over time, this acceptance will be happening gradually, and
more and more people will install solar panels on their roofs with satisfaction
and awareness (SEN; GANGULY, 2017).
For Del Río et al.,
(2018), the implantation of photovoltaic solar energy has great potential for
providing value and local development, by locating the production of equipment,
services, operation and maintenance, creating employment opportunities. It’s
for this reason that local development boosts political support. In Germany, in
2013, more than 370,000 direct jobs were created with renewable energy. If
jobs related to politics, development, research, training and education are
taken into account, this number goes from 1.5 million jobs (GERHARDT, 2016).
Solar energy has a very
positive characteristic for a society that is located in a region where the
site isn’t very valued, the area of which has little vegetation or dry
land. It promotes to the place the ideal development for installations of
solar panels, capable of generating not only clean energy, but employment and
income for the host city of solar energy (HASAPIS et al., 2017). That is,
investments in photovoltaic solar energy in arid regions, provides the
necessary attribute for the generation of energy (sunlight), in contrast it
promotes the development of these "unproductive" lands.
2.2.6. Barriers of Knowledge (BC)
Knowledge barriers are
related to the general knowledge of the technology, the benefits of
photovoltaic solar energy, the lack of trained personnel, specialized
companies, etc. This can impoverish confidence in technology in all
sectors, whether public, private or investment (OHUNAKIN et al., 2014).
According to (RATHORE et
al., 2018), the lack of knowledge, awareness and familiarity with this
technology makes it impossible to obtain any financing from the
banks. Such a characteristic indicates that the shortage of qualified
people, information and knowledge becomes a barrier on renewable energy (ENGELKEN
et al., 2016).
The lack of knowledge
about who adopts and who doesn’t adopt photovoltaic solar energy is worrisome
because it can result in improper use of this technology and in the inability
to maintain the system, thus becoming a relevant barrier to the implementation
of this energy (KARAKAYA; SRIWANNAWIT, 2015).
The lack of specialized
and skilled human resources for renewable energy systems is very important for
the outcome of a renewable energy deployment project. It may therefore
become a major barrier in developing countries, especially if the lack of
public and institutional awareness also act together as barriers (SEN; GANGULY,
2017).
A study carried out in
China indicated that the respondents viewed solar photovoltaic energy with a
low level of application, and were also very concerned about system complexity,
durability, maturity and stability (DE SENA et al., 2016). That is,
knowledge isn’t only in technology, but also in the diffusion of knowledge and
use in society.
Solar energy promotion
events, through workshops and networking sessions, are important to share
knowledge, be it spreading the latest technology trends or sharing best
practices (JOLLY, 2017). In addition to stimulating the link between
different sectors such as solar manufacturers, equipment suppliers, developers,
government representatives, consultants, investors, etc.
2.3.
Research Hypotheses And Conceptual Model
Based on the
bibliographic review, the hypotheses were mapped according to the most relevant
barriers found in the literature and thus formulated 06 hypotheses to be tested
in the model, the following is the hypotheses:
· Hypothesis 1 (H1): There’s a negative effect of Technical Barriers (B1) on the deployment
and expansion of solar Energy (ZHANG et al., 2012).
· Hypothesis 2 (H2): There’s a negative effect of the Political Barriers (B2) on the
implantation and expansion of solar Energy (PUNIA et al., 2017).
· Hypothesis 3 (H3): There’s a negative effect of Financial Barriers (B3) on the deployment
and expansion of solar Energy (PUNIA et al., 2017).
· Hypothesis 4 (H4): There’s a negative effect of the Environmental Barriers (B4) on the
deployment and expansion of solar energy (KARAKAYA; SRIWANNAWIT, 2015).
· Hypothesis 5 (H5): There’s a negative effect of the Social, Cultural and Behavioral
Barriers (B5) on the implantation and expansion of solar Energy (KAPOOR et al.,
2014).
· Hypothesis 6 (H6): There’s a negative effect of Knowledge Barriers (B6) on the deployment
and expansion of solar Energy (OHUNAKIN et al., 2014).
Assuming the hypotheses, it was possible to
elaborate a conceptual model, as shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1: Proposed Conceptual Model
Source: Prepared by the authors.
3.
RESEARCH METHOD
For the development of
this article the methodology adopted consisted of a literature review and
identification of the research need, followed by a study using both the
quantitative and the qualitative approach. The first one regarding the
formulation of hypotheses, as well as the data collection and the statistical
treatment. The second, by understanding the characteristics of the
respondents.
The literature review assigns an exploratory character, with the theoretical basis for the identification of the barriers and the formulation of the research hypotheses. Afterwards, the work was of a descriptive confirmatory nature, where a survey was carried out with the companies that operate in the photovoltaic solar energy market in Brazil, applying a survey questionnaire composed of 23 questions, using a Likert scale of 7 points (1 - "Totally Disagree" to 7 - "Totally Agree"), a model was developed through Structural Modeling Equations (SEM) to test and evaluate the proposed model and hypotheses. Fig. 2 shows the schematic of the research methodology.
Figure
2: Research methodology
3.1.1. Survey Questionnaire
The literature review was a fundamental basis for the construction of the questionnaire, through which it was possible to formulate the constructs and their main indicators determined by the most relevant authors. These indicators, in turn, were translated into questions that formulated the questionnaire and then were sent to the respondents - solar energy companies. The questionnaire was applied to the Online Survey Monkey platform, structured on a 7-point Likert scale: 1 - "Strongly disagree", 2 - "I disagree in part", 3 - "I disagree" 4 - "Indifferent", 5 - "I agree ", 6 -" I agree in part and 7 - "I totally agree." It’s applied to several companies that operate in the solar energy sector in Brazil. Responses were collected within 10 days.
3.1.2. Modeling of Structural Equations -
SEM
For the modeling, a
model was searched for the evaluation of the barriers of the implantation of
solar photovoltaic energy. However, in view of the non-existence of this
model, we tried to construct one based on the hypotheses and correlations that were
referenced by the main authors. The proposed final model is presented
later in the research results, according to Figure 3.
4.
Results
This chapter shows the
results of the survey, where the questionnaire obtained a total of 146 answers,
being 25 partials and 121 complete, which satisfies the research since the
model has 23 indicators and for each indicator needs at least 05 answers per
indicator, totalizing the need for at least 115 responses (HAIR JR. et al.,
2014). With the data validated, the analysis of the results follows:
For the evaluation of
the structural model, the Explained Variance was analyzed through the Pearson
determination coefficients (R²). The value of R² varies between 0 and 1,
with those closest to 1 indicating higher levels of predictive accuracy (HAIR
JR. et al., 2009). Table 3 shows the values of the Pearson determination
coefficients.
Table 3: Pearson determination coefficients
R
values |
||
R² |
Adjusted R² |
|
Solar Energy Implementation |
0,318 |
0,288 |
Source: SmartPLS.
It’s necessary to the
research also to evaluate the Stone-Geisser Q2 value
(Geisser, 1974; Stone, 1974), which is a Predictive
Relevance Indicator of the model, where it’s assumed that the model predicts
each indicator of the constructs (HAIR JR. et al., 2011). The reference values
for this analysis are 0.02; 015 and 0.35 for small, medium and high explanatory
power indicators (HAIR JR. et al., 2014).
Table 4: Predictive Relevance Indicator - Q²
Indicators
Q² |
|
Latent
variable |
Q² |
BA |
0.135 |
BF |
|
BP |
|
BS |
|
BC |
|
I |
Source:
SmartPLS.
We can observe, through
the Pearson Determination Coefficients (R²), Table 3, and the Predictive
Relevance Indicator (Q²), Table 4, that the proposed model has predictive
relevance. Finally, the last indicator to estimate the measurement model is the
analysis of the statistical values T and P. T values above 1.96 and P above 5%
of significance prove the existence of the causal relationship between two
constructs (HAIR JR. et al., 2011).
Table 5: Path Coefficients (T) and Significance Level (P)
T and P Values |
|||
Latent variable |
T Statistics |
P Values |
Situation |
BA |
0.480 |
0.631 |
Rejected |
BF |
1.603 |
0.109 |
Rejected |
BP |
2.584 |
0.010 |
Accepts |
BS |
0.890 |
0.374 |
Rejected |
BC |
2.852 |
0.004 |
Accepts |
Source:
SmartPLS.
As we can see are two accepted hypotheses, considering the adequate adjustment for two constructs with reference to T values higher than 1.96. After the model adjustments, it was necessary to eliminate 7 indicators and 1 construct (Technical Barriers - BT), thus repeating the structural and measurement model estimates. Fig. 3 shows, therefore, the final model.
Figure 3: Final Model with Path Coefficient (T)
Source: SmartPLS.
Some aspects were
observed such as the standard loads (Outer Loadings); Cronbach's Alpha and
Compound Reliability; Descending Validity; Variance Inflation Factor (VIF);
Redundancy and Commonwealth of the Construct, to validate and guarantee the
reliability of the data collected (HAIR JR. et al., 2014).
The first evaluation of
the model took place in the analysis of the standardized loads of the
indicators, where each one is analyzed individually, whose reference values are
higher than 0.7. However, values between 0.4 and 0.7 are also acceptable
for exploratory research (HAIR JR. et al., 2014). After all the
adjustments made in the initial model and adapted to the quality criteria,
AVE> 5, Cronbach's Alpha> 6 and Compound Reliability> 6.
It was observed that
the discriminant validity, since it represents an important evaluation
criterion of the model, is used in the model, in order to guarantee that the
relation of the construct itself is superior to the relation with the other
constructs and also in relation to its indicators (HAIR JR. et al.,
2014).
For this analysis, we started
with cross load analysis of the indicators (Cross Loadings), where it was
evaluated whether the load of the indicator is superior for its construct in
relation to the others, allowing, therefore, the final adjustment of the model,
according to Figure 3.
5.
CONSIDERATIONS
This study showed the
main barriers to the expansion of solar energy in Brazil. This shows how
much the country lags behind the innovations in renewable energies, since solar
energy is still underutilized and under-exploited. Although there are
presumptions that technical, political, financial, environmental,
socio-cultural and behavioral aspects, and knowledge, are aspects that guide
obstacles to its expansion.
It has been realized
that, although there are studies indicating fiscal factors, in favor of
incentives or tax exemptions, and the debureaucratization
are a means to sanitize and to prosper development for the sector of solar
energy. In this study, the need was met through a metric modeling by
structural equations, and a broad empirical basis for the case of Brazil, to
demonstrate that among several obstacles there are in fact some barriers that
are the effective reasons for impeding the expansion of energy in Brazil.
To this end, the model
proposed and tested, in order to demonstrate the Brazilian Solar Energy
Barriers in a representative way, was initially based on a literature that
indicated the main guidelines that limit the photovoltaic energy expansion. In
order to propose a model, whose indicators were validated in order to be
consistent with the reality of the photovoltaic solar energy sector in Brazil. The
initial model was proposed with 23 indicators and 6 constructs, using PL-SEM
(Partial Least Squares Strutural Equation Modeling)
that also followed criteria of the literature. When the need for
adjustments, such as the elimination of indicators, which were made following
the criteria of the PL-SEM methodology.
With respect to the
hypotheses tested, hypothesis 2 and hypothesis 6, which deal with the effect of
the Political Barrier and Knowledge Barrier respectively, were accepted. Assumptions
3, 4 and 5, Financial Barriers, Environmental Barriers and Social, Cultural,
and Behavioral Barriers were rejected. Finally, hypothesis 1 was not
tested because the BT construct (Technical Barrier) was removed from the
initial model. Therefore, it doesn’t appear in the adjusted final model. Perhaps
this result was influenced by the fact that the research was carried out with
the vast majority of respondents being businessmen of the sector and already
with the development of the technological area developed.
The rejection of the
Financial, Environmental and Social Barriers shows us its low influence in the
face of the Political and Knowledge Barriers, considering the current context of
the country, where there’s a strong policy of incentives to thermoelectric,
while the efforts for solar energy deserves better attention from both national
and regional governments. This is evidenced by the examples presented by
countries that have this well-developed and widespread technology whose
characteristics are to have a good acceptance and great political incentives,
something that isn’t yet evident in Brazil. Therefore, political and
knowledge barriers make a quantitative analysis of the low expansion of
photovoltaic solar energy in Brazil.
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